The Australian solar industry is facing a convergence of market pressures that may affect homeowners and businesses planning to invest in solar energy. Industry experts are forecasting notable increases in solar panel prices throughout 2026, while a shortage of skilled installation labour is contributing to longer project timelines. For consumers considering solar installations, understanding these developments is essential for making informed decisions.
Key points
- Solar panel prices are rising: China will remove VAT export rebates for PV products from April 1, 2026, and record-high silver prices are increasing manufacturing costs, creating higher solar panel prices for Australian consumers.
- Skilled installation labour is in short supply: A lack of qualified solar installers in Australia is extending project timelines, leading to potential delays for homeowners and businesses.
- Compounding impact on consumers: Higher equipment costs combined with labour shortages can increase both the upfront investment and installation time, making early planning and engagement with reputable installers essential.
Solar panel prices set to increase
Global supply chain shifts are placing upward pressure on solar panel costs. China, which supplies the majority of the world’s photovoltaic (PV) modules, will eliminate value-added tax (VAT) export rebates for solar products starting April 1, 2026. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration of China announced this adjustment in January, following a previous reduction in rebates implemented in December 2024. Market analysts predict this policy will materially increase export costs for Chinese manufacturers, with some expecting a surge in shipments during the first quarter of 2026 as companies accelerate exports ahead of the rebate deadline.
Adding further cost pressure, silver, an essential material in PV module production, has reached record prices, climbing to $83.62 per ounce as of late December 2025, up 181% year-to-date. Michael DiRienzo, president and CEO of the Silver Institute, highlights that ongoing structural deficits in the silver market, combined with export restrictions announced by China starting January 1, 2026, are creating additional cost pressures for solar manufacturers. Together, these factors signal higher solar panel prices in the Australian market in the near term.
Skilled labour shortages impacting installations
Alongside rising equipment costs, Australia is facing a shortage of skilled solar installation labour. Clean energy project estimates indicate that an additional 40,000 workers will be needed by 2030 to support renewable energy deployment, including solar PV, wind and storage projects. This skill gap extends to electricians, mechanical trades, and project management roles critical for rooftop and larger‑scale installations.
Government workforce planning projections also highlight a significant shortfall of electricians and other energy trades workers by 2030 if current training pipelines do not expand. This shortage is already affecting renewable projects in regional areas, where labour competition is acute, and access to qualified installers can delay system completion.Â
As of January 1, 2026, the wage-based market rate for SAA-accredited electricians has increased by 20% since July 1, 2025, according to advertised positions on seek.com.au (Perth).Â
Implications for Homeowners and Businesses
In addition to rising component costs, Australia is experiencing a shortage of qualified solar installers. The renewable energy sector has grown rapidly over the past decade, but training and certifying new technicians has not kept pace. Industry reports indicate that installation backlogs are extending project timelines, meaning homeowners and businesses may face delays of several weeks—or even months—for solar system installations. This shortage amplifies the effect of rising equipment costs, as limited labour availability can increase installation fees and slow project completion.
Big picture
While the Australian solar market faces short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for renewable energy remains strong. Rising panel prices and labour shortages are temporary but significant factors that consumers should consider when planning solar projects. By staying informed and working with qualified industry professionals, Australians can navigate these conditions effectively, ensuring sustainable energy solutions continue to deliver value for years to come.
References
Shaw, V. (2026, January 9). China to abolish solar export tax rebates in April. PV Magazine.
Jowett, P. (2025, December 29). Silver hits record high of $83.62 an ounce. PV Magazine.
- Monaghan,T. (2024, July 25). Australia’s workforce shortage: A potential obstacle on the road to net zero. Australian Energy Council.
- (2026, January) Solar panel prices set to rise 15–20% across Australia (Q1/Q2, 2026). McKercher Corporation.
